Oscars 2023: Predictions of the final nominations in 23 categories

One of the great advantages of Oscar films is that they are fresh and original. Once upon a time, “Avatar” was that movie: it blew the socks off Oscar voters in the 2010 Oscar race, winning three of nine nominations and nearly making it to Best Picture. Titanic winner James Cameron was excited for his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow, who won for The Hurt Locker.

This year, four PGA-nominated sequels are vying for one of the top 10 films, including “Avatar: The Way of Water,” but none are likely to win the top prize. New for 2023 is Daniels’ ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ from maverick indie A24, who also support ‘The Whale’. Both won big at the Critics Choice Awards, which are often considered Oscars, and many expect those wins (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing for “Everything”), along with Best Actor for “ The star of “The Whale”, Brendan Fraser, should repeat the Oscar.

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Not so fast. Recent years have seen a surge in support for “Parasite” and “CODA” following SAG Ensemble wins. And you can feel it at the awards show “Everything,” which is likely to win SAG Ensemble. But that doesn’t change the nature of this chaotic blockbuster ($100M worldwide) comedy, which plays better to younger audiences than the older and more conservative members of the Academy, who might not respond to death-throwing multiverses and floppy hot dog fingers. . Supported by actors (5 SAG nominations), producers (PGA top 10), directors (DGA top 5), writers and international voters (10 BAFTA nominations), along with craft. So passion, originality and a moving immigrant family storyline carried by Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Stephanie Hsu could end up making “Everything” the best picture trophy.

On Oscar nominations morning, I’m predicting that ‘Everything’ will receive nine nominations, the most of any contender this year. Martin McDonagh’s Banshees of Inisherin should follow with eight, and while it didn’t win at the CCAs, it’s likely to get a big boost from the BAFTAs (10 nominations); supported by actors (SAG Ensemble), directors (DGA), producers (PGA), writers and the international bloc.

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It’s all about figuring out where the support is. It is clear that the international faction is not reacting to Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans”, which only managed to get Tony Kushner’s writing nomination at BAFTA. While “The Fabelmans” was a big hit at the Golden Globes, it took home Best Drama and Director, but only Best Young Actor (Gabriel LaBelle) at the CCA. Spielberg’s coming-of-age myth made the PGA List and SAG Ensemble, but missed out on a Best Actress nomination for Michelle Williams. The SAG and the Oscars don’t always match. In all likelihood, she will appear on Oscar nomination morning with SAG nominee Paul Dano.

Marks: seven. Why not more? A small-scale family drama may not impress the artisans as much as the average Spielberg event film.

The year’s top-grossing original film, Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic “Elvis” ($282 million worldwide), has eight nominations, with support from nearly every sector except writers and directors. (Could it be a surprise director?) In the best director category, Todd Field’s musical world drama “THE LIBRARY” is sure to be full of unexpected surprises, and it could win Globe and CCA winner Cate Blanchett’s third Oscar. Marks: five.

Among the sequels, “Top Gun: Maverick” can get seven nods with the support of the crafts. While Joseph Kosinski got love from the DGA, James Cameron could replace him at the Oscars this morning for his impressive work in Avatar: The Way of Water. This VFX favorite should also score seven nods. It is possible that the enormous box-office success of both films, which are currently fighting for the crown of the best domestic gross of 2022, will offset them in the competition for the best film. Somehow they don’t scream “art”, even though both required a great deal of artistry to do so well.

That’s also true of the two PGA-nominated sequels up for Best Picture: Ryan Coogler’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and Rian Johnson’s “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.” Marks: five and one (adapted script).

A new contender for the top 10 best picture: Edward Berger’s German Oscar entry, World War I remake “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which received 14 BAFTA nominations and five Oscar nominations. This means more voters will see the film, which is the front-runner in the International Feature competition, but also plays in several craft categories. Marks: five.

Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” is an uncertainty because it’s obviously respected by the craft, but also by SAG, which gave it a valuable Ensemble slot, presumably before it bombed at the box office. But the PGA was also involved. Nominations: four, including Best Picture.

Which brings us to the question of the hour: Sarah Polley’s feminist drama “Women Talking” (SAG Ensemble, CCAs) versus Darren Aronofsky’s heartbreaking “The Whale” (PGAs, CCAs, BAFTAs). Catching ‘The Whale’ Adapted Screenplay? (The predictive Scripter Awards went to “Women Talking,” while the BAFTAs chose “The Whale.”) If so, it could be in the Best Picture category. Both films are in contention for top score, while “The Whale” leads the makeup and hair category. Finally, “Women Talking,” which sought critical support but was released too late, had the same wide release (mostly among men) as “The Whale” ($10.7 million domestic). Marks: three each.

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Below are my final nomination predictions, ranked by probability of victory.

the best picture

“The Fablemen”
“Everything everywhere at once”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“TAR”
“Avatar: The Path of Water”
“Elvis”
“Babylon”
“Quiet on the Western Front”
“Women Speak”

Best director

Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Todd Field (“LIBRARY”)
James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”)

Best actress

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Cate Blanchett (“LIBRARY”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Viola Davis (“The Woman King”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)

Best actor

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Bill Nighy (“Live”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Paul Dano (“The Fabelmans”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Adapted screenplay

Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)
Kazuo Ishiguro (“Live”)
Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie and Eric Warren (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
Edward Berger and Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell (“Quiet on the Western Front”)

Original screenplay

“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything everywhere at once”
“The Fablemen”
“TAR”
“The Triangle of Sadness”

Filming

“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Avatar: The Path of Water”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Empire of Light”

Costumes

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Babylon”
“The King of Women”
“Everything everywhere at once”

Editing

“Top Gun: Maverick”
“TAR”
“Elvis”
“Everything everywhere at once”
“Avatar: The Path of Water”

Makeup and hairstyle

“The Whale”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Quiet on the Western Front”

Production planning

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Babylon”
“Elvis”
“Avatar: The Path of Water”
“Quiet on the Western Front”

Original score

“The Fablemen”
“Babylon”
“Pinocchio”
“Women Speak”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Original song

“RRR” (“Naatu Naatu”)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (“Lift Me Up”)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (“Hold My Hand”)
“Pinocchio” (“Ciao Papa”)
“A Man Called Otto” (“While You’re Home”)

Voice
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Avatar: The Path of Water”
“Elvis”
“The Batman”
“Quiet on the Western Front”

VFX

“Avatar: The Path of Water”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Jurassic World: Dominion”

Animated feature
“Pinocchio”
“Turns Red”
“Marcel the Shell with shoes”
“My Father’s Dragon”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”

Documentary

“Navalny”
“Fire of Love”
“Everything That Breathes”
“All beauty and bloodshed”
“A House of Shards”

International feature
“Quiet on the Western Front”
“Argentina, 1985”
“Decision to Leave”
“Closure”
“EO”

Animated short film

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“The Year of the Tail”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
“Black Slide”

Short documentary film

“The Flag Makers”
“38 in the garden”
“As long as they can run”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Haulout”

Live action short film

“Le Pupille”
“Warsaw”
“Ivalo”
“Night Journey”
“Tula”

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