Oscars 2023: Best Supporting Actor Predictions

We’ll be updating these predictions throughout awards season, so stay tuned to IndieWire for our 2023 Oscars picks. The final vote will take place between March 2 and 7, 2023. The 95th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 12th and will air live on ABC at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.

Check out our earlier thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards.

State of the species

While the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor weren’t entirely predictable, the final five nominees have moved up and down the nominees list throughout awards season. After years of prominent roles in movies like “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Brian Tyree Henry has finally made his foray into the silent Apple TV+ movie “Causeway.” It was a surprise, but the vibe always pointed to it, even if it wasn’t featured on every televised awards show leading up to the Academy voting period.

Nevertheless, it is likely that his nomination will win. There is no doubt that this acting competition boasts a clear front-runner. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star Ke Huy Quan won more critics’ awards than any other actor nominee, and his moving acceptance speeches went viral after the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Being up front this early can be tricky, but the “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” star’s comeback narrative makes it easy to root for him.

As for a fellow nominee who could get a second wind just in time for the final Oscar vote, look no further than Judd Hirsch, who played a small but powerful role in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.” The 87-year-old is currently the second-oldest actor nominated and also broke the record for the longest gap between nominations; It’s been 42 years since he got the nod for “Ordinary People” in the same category in 1981. Many Oscar prognosticators assumed that his co-star Paul Dano, who plays much more of the family patriarch, would score a nomination and split the vote among the Fabelmans’ fans, but that was not the case. Dano’s absence could benefit Hirsch, as the veteran actor is the only representative of the family drama in this category.

It’s entirely possible that Inisherin Banshees is more popular with the Academy than “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “The Fabelmans,” but dual supporting actor nominees Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan could steal votes from each other. Older actor Gleeson seems to be the one to vote for as Keoghan has spent most of the awards season on the bubble, but it would be hard to beat a strong contender like Quan.

The nominees are listed below in order of probability of winning.

Competitors:
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

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