Oscars 2023 Best Picture Predictions

We’ll be updating these predictions throughout awards season, so stay tuned to IndieWire for our 2023 Oscars picks. The final vote will take place between March 2 and 7, 2023. The 95th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 12th and will air live on ABC at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.

Our awards editor, TV and film Marcus Jones, joins editor at large Anne Thompson for the latest Oscar prediction updates. Check out their previous thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards.

State of the species

One of the great advantages of Oscar films is that they are fresh and original. Once upon a time, “Avatar” was that movie: it blew the socks off Oscar voters in the 2010 Oscar race, winning three of nine nominations and nearly making it to Best Picture. “Titanic” winner James Cameron was excited for his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow, who won for “The Hurt Locker.”

Two PGA-nominated blockbuster sequels are competing for Best Picture this year, “Avatar: The Way of Water” (with four nods) and “Top Gun: Maverick” (with six nods), though both arguably kept the blockbuster alive. In the past year, it is unlikely that either of them will win the main prize. The huge box office success of both films may weigh on the Best Picture race. None of them received a director’s nomination. Somehow they don’t scream “art”, even though both required a great deal of artistry to do so well.

Connected

Connected

The top prize will probably go to Oscar season new new, the Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” from maverick indie A24, led the Oscar pack with 11 a.m. nominations.

Recent years have seen a surge in support for “Parasite” and “CODA” following SAG Ensemble wins. And you can feel it at the awards show for “Everything,” which is likely to win the big prize at the upcoming SAG Awards. While this chaotic hit comedy ($100 million worldwide) plays better to younger audiences than the Academy’s older and more conservative members, some of whom don’t respond to death-throwing multiverses and floppy hot dog fingers, the actors (five SAG nominations ), backed by producers (PGA top 10), directors (DGA top 5), writers (original WGA) and international voters (10 BAFTA nominations), along with craftsmanship. So passion, originality and a moving immigrant family storyline carried by Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Stephanie Hsu could end up making “Everything” the best picture trophy.

Courtesy of Allyson Riggs, A24

Martin McDonagh’s Banshees of Inisherin is in the running for the top prize with nine nominations and is likely to get a big boost from the upcoming BAFTAs (10 nominations); supported by actors (who nominated Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Brendan Gleeson and Kerry Condon), directors (DGA), producers (PGA), writers (though not eligible for the WGA) and the international bloc.

While older moviegoers (the Academy’s foundation) were hard to pull back to theaters overall, Best Picture nominees “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “TÁR” and “Triangle of Sadness” made modest gains at the specialty box office. but they inevitably wound up on video-on-demand, along with “The Fabelmans,” which lost steam in the awards race when audiences didn’t flock to theaters.

After rapturous receptions at AFI FEST and TIFF, where the heartbreaking “The Fabelmans” won the coveted Oscar-predator People’s Choice Award, Steven Spielberg’s most personal film played well in front of the Academy crowd, picking up seven nominations, but it may have hurt that it assumed front runner.

The year’s top-grossing original film, Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic “Elvis” ($282 million worldwide), earned eight nominations with support from nearly every sector except writers and directors. Austin Butler is in a stronger position, alongside Farrell, Blanchett and Yeoh, because his film is a Best Picture contender.

Only three films were directed and edited: “Everything Everywhere”, “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “TÁR”. Todd Field’s world musical drama, which has received six nominations, is full of unexpected surprises and is likely to take home a win for Globe and CCA winner Cate Blanchett’s third Oscar.

Reminding everyone again that the international block is truly huge, the top 10 for Best Picture included Edward Berger’s German Oscar-winning World War I remake “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which after 14 BAFTA nominations and five received nine nominations. Oscar selected locations. Now more voters will be watching the film, which is the front-runner in the International Feature competition, but also plays a role in several craft categories.

After the dust settled on the morning of the nominations, many wished the Academy (which, despite its efforts at inclusion, is still 66 percent male and 81 percent white) would support this year’s women’s films. Sarah Polley’s feminist ensemble drama “Women Talking” was the only best picture entry, but the author had to settle for the adapted screenplay rather than the director, who chose an all-male cast this year. Action films set in Africa, “The Woman King” and seriously sober “She Said” were completely excluded from the Oscars.

The nominees are listed below in order of probability of winning.

Competitors:
“Everything everywhere at once”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“The Fablemen”
“TAR”
“Elvis”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Avatar: The Path of Water”
“Quiet on the Western Front”
“Women Speak”
“The Triangle of Sadness”

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