Oscars 2023: Best Original Screenplay Predictions

We’ll keep updating these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for our 2023 Oscars picks. The final vote will take place between March 2 and 7, 2023. The 95th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 12th and will air live on ABC at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.

See IndieWire’s previous Oscar predictions for this category and more here.

State of the species

The Academy has plenty of opportunities to spread the wealth at this year’s Oscars, as many of the 2023 nominees have earned multiple nods that aren’t necessarily sweeping. In addition to the nominees for Best Original Screenplay, four out of five of the filmmakers in the Best Director category created their own projects and therefore also received the Best Film award.

In theory, that could lead to voters awarding Best Original Screenplay to “Triangle of Sadness” scribe Ruben Östlund, who is technically the odd man out in the Best Picture race. The Swedish director doesn’t fit the archetype of who voters pick for Best Picture, at least not as well as the other nominees. Simply put, the best original screenplay most often goes to an author who has been waiting a long time. obsession the most exciting new kid(s) on the block. Östlund falls right in between the two; he’s someone the Academy has known about for a while, but he’s only just breaking out in the Best International Feature Film category.

A better fit? As for a filmmaker long in the running to win an Oscar for screenwriting, it’s “Inisherin banshees” director Martin McDonagh, who already won the Oscar for best live-action short, but came away empty-handed. Best Original Screenplay Nominations: “In Bruges” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” The third time may be the charm for McDonagh, as his film is also a serious contender for Best Picture, and his writing has always been praised more than his direction.

But there’s still a chance for voters to decide who they consider a new discovery, à la Jordan Peele (“Get Out”) or Emerald Fennell (“A Young Woman of Promise”), and best original screenplay for Daniel It is given to Kwan and Daniel. Scheinert (AKA Daniels) for their innovative sophomore effort, Everything Everywhere All at Once. The pair have a slight edge over McDonagh as they were nominated for a WGA award, while the Irish filmmaker was ruled ineligible. If they do win the guild award on March 5, Daniels will have one last appeal to a group of academy members before the final vote closes. Not for nothing, but they also won this category at the Critics Choice Awards, against the same group of candidates (except Östlund).

“TÁR” writer-director Todd Field and “The Fabelmans” co-writer Tony Kushner are in a similar boat, with three screenplay nominations and four screenplay nods, while 76-year-old filmmaker Steven Spielberg has been nominated for writing for the first time. . As for their chances of winning, Field is slightly hampered by the fact that star Cate Blanchett seems like such a lock for Best Actress, allowing voters to use this category to ensure a film they love wins. Meanwhile, “The Fabelmans” is probably too far in the Best Picture and Best Director races to really advance.

The nominees are listed below in order of probability of winning.

Competitors:
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Todd Field (“LIBRARY”)
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Ruben Östlund (The Triangle of Sadness)

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