Oscars 2023: Best Actress Predictions

We’ll be updating these predictions throughout awards season, so stay tuned to IndieWire for our 2023 Oscars picks. The final vote will take place between March 2 and 7, 2023. The 95th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 12th and will air live on ABC at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.

Check out our initial thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards.

State of the species

Well, that was unexpected.

A year after “House of Gucci” star Lady Gaga received Best Actress nominations at nearly every major television front-runner (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards) but was left out of the Oscar nominations, the same unfortunate twist of lightning he struck twice, hitting “The Woman King” star Viola Davis.

Not only was she and the crowd-pleasing historical epic she produced nominated for nothing, but rising star Danielle Deadwyler and her film “Till” went completely unrecognized as it was snubbed by the Golden Globes as well. Both rebuttals seem to suggest that the Academy’s actors likely didn’t watch the films, even though “The Woman King” was a $95 million global hit. Was it because these acts were played in films directed by black and/or female filmmakers? Also overlooked on nominations morning were Vicky Krieps (“Corsage” by Marie Kreutzer) and Rooney Mara (“Women Talking” by Sarah Polley).

Connected

Connected

In the Best Actress category, two surprises were presented by “To Leslie” British star Andrea Riseborough and “blonde” Cuban-born actress Ana de Armas. To be fair, Davis and Deadwyler may not have generated as much passion from voters as their rivals. People who like Riseborough and de Armas’ performances really, really like them, so they could very well have been people’s top picks when they finally cast their votes.

While November’s Independent Spirit Awards were the first to nominate Riseborough, actresses such as Gwyneth Paltrow and Kate Winslet appear to have been the biggest contributors to the trusty ‘To Leslie’ star in the nomination voting on social media. received his first Oscar nod. (He was also challenged by Cate Blanchett when he won at the Critics Choice Awards.) De Armas was the more predictable nominee, with Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG recognition, and even a ringing nod from Best Actor nominee Colin Farrell. “The Banshees of Inisherin” in his Globes speech.

However, many believed that the vulnerable player was non-SAG Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”). The now five-time Oscar nominee also missed out on a BAFTA nod. But the Steven Spielberg-written and directed family drama fared better with Oscar voters than the other awards organizations, and with fellow perennial nominee Davis out of the running, it could give Williams an even bigger push to finally win the Academy. Award after several decades of celebrated work.

But the truth is, this year’s Best Actress race is still between “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star Michelle Yeoh and “TÁR” star Cate Blanchett. The pair has the lion’s share of Best Actress nominations among critics, and both gave acceptance speeches at the 2023 Golden Globes. Although Blanchett has the upper hand, her recognition was not due to awards voted on by members of the Academy. With the exception of three-time winner Frances McDormand, it’s historically difficult to win multiple Best Actress awards, even if many consider Lydia Tár’s menacing craftsman to be the best performance of her career. Meanwhile, this is international icon Yeoh’s first Oscar nomination and the first for an Asian actress.

Considering Blanchett’s speeches this season, she’s clearly aiming for another actress to win this year. In Blanchett’s favor: Best Actress is most likely for “LIBRARY,” which has six nominations, including best picture, director and original screenplay, while “Everything Everywhere” could win in several categories, especially for supporting actor Ke Huy Quan. .

The nominees are listed below in order of probability of winning.

Competitors:
Cate Blanchett (“LIBRARY”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Ana de Armas (“blonde”)
Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

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