Golden Globe and SAG Awards: Who leads the Oscar race?

Academy voters have never taken the Golden Globes seriously. It’s always been a festive party night, with a brilliant Jack Nicholson type front and center (see: Brad Pitt) and revelers roaming the halls of the Beverly Hilton looking for the next hot party. (See… well, on that note, the show definitely fell short).

This year, there was less talk about the specifics — awkward host Jerrod Carmichael; no-show winners Cate Blanchett (“TAR”) and Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”) — as questions about the future of the entire enterprise. Dick Clark Prods. Todd Boehly is now turning the 96-member HFPA into a for-profit that pays employees $75,000 a year to vote for the Globes while adding to a growing roster of (unpaid) international voters, some of whom are people of color.

People who watch the show don’t care. It was delightful to see the moments when the winners spoke to the tables in the room – like first-time winner and Oscar front-runner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) in a poignant tribute to early mentor Steven Spielberg. A Globes winner gets some momentum, and a great speech can go viral on social media and put the likes of Meryl Streep (2017’s “Florence Foster Jenkins”) in contention. Academy voters watch the videos, if not the show.

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Pater familias Steven Spielberg had a great night, winning best director and best drama for “The Fabelmans” (Universal), polishing the Toronto People’s Choice winner’s audience-pleasing credentials after a string of weak theatrical releases.

And “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight) not only took home best actor in a comedy (really? comedy?) for Colin Farrell (who sweet-talked the actress into a real-life friendship with Brendan Gleeson), but also Martin’s screenplay and best comedy. McDonagh. Best actress in a comedy, Michelle Yeoh, who reminded viewers of her struggles as an Asian actress, did not go up against her perceived Oscar rival Blanchett, who won the drama category, as did the attractive Austin Butler in the drama category, which won without Farrell.

Many in the greater Hollywood awards complex see the Golden Globes as indispensable to the Oscar machine, greasing the rails on the way to the big night. If anything, this show proved that the Globes are well past their prime, trying to conjure up faded memories of their glory days, a rickety enterprise with no solid foundation. Jan. 15 brings the Critics Choice Awards (I’m a member) on the CW, which have a long way to go to compete with the influence of broadcast or the brand recognition of the Golden Globes, but the diversity of the voting body is more than 500 working professionals. Several CCA members (including Deadline’s Pete Hammond) declined invitations to the Globe event, although non-members were welcome. A Golden Globe representative did not respond by press time.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are much more predictive than the Globes. SAG’s 4,200-strong film and television nominating committee carries more weight than the Academy’s 1,302 actors (the largest Oscar voting group), but they overlap. The big winner at the SAG nominations was Netflix, which managed to land charming “Hustle” star Adam Sandler and his equally winsome Globe nominees Ana De Armas (“Blonde”) and Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Sister”). bring it into the ranks of the SAG.

That doesn’t mean they’ll repeat the Oscar nominations on the morning of January 24. However, Oscar voting begins on Thursday, January 12th and ends on Monday, January 17th. Even more voters will sample the SAG nominees before making their final decision.

After two Globe wins and five SAG nominations, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is building steam. Not only did the SAG committee place her in the Ensemble — often as an Oscar bell-ringer — but Globe winner Yeoh was also cast in the female lead, with two of her co-stars in support: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu. (The supporting actress category boasted two Asian-American actresses, with Hong Chau entering for “The Whale.”) Also at SAG was the expected Quan, who should continue his winning streak until the Oscars.

Golden Globe winner and SAG nominee Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) continues her journey with the Oscar part. It’s a legacy award as much as a recognition of his intense performance as a royal leader grieving the loss of his son. At the Globes, Bassett recalled (one of many who spied on her iPhone) that the last time she was a winner on this stage was in 1994, for “What’s Love Got to Do with It?” in the movie. It’s an irresistible Oscar narrative.

Also earning five SAG nominations were “Banshees of Inisherin,” which earned an Ensemble nod, along with spots for leading man Farrell, supporting men Gleeson and Keoghan, and supporting female Kerry Condon, whom McDonagh praised Tuesday night for stealing the film. received from the male. co-star.

“The Fabelmans” managed to get an Ensemble nod, which is great, but only Paul Dano got an acting nod: Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch were snubbed.

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Similarly, while composer Justin Hurwitz took home the only Golden Globe award for the Hollywood saga “Babylon” (no mention of director Damien Chazelle), the film surprisingly ended up in the SAG Ensemble, a sign of the actors’ strength. But Globe nominees Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt didn’t score SAG spots — a sign of weakness. And again, while Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” earned a much-needed seat at the SAG Ensemble table, none of its actors (who competed against each other) received a nomination.

Left out of Ensemble, but in the Best Stunt Ensemble category was “The Woman King,” while popular Viola Davis was featured in “Leading Female Drama” and “Till” rising star Danielle Deadwyler. Both should end up in the Oscar race for their powerful emotional performances. They starred in Stunt Ensemble, but left out of other SAG mentions were Oscar contenders “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which are sure to do well in the Oscar categories. However, Tom Cruise can kiss goodbye to another Oscar nomination.

One thing waiting for Oscar night: While ‘RRR’ didn’t win Best Foreign Language Film at the Globes, it did win Best Song, and assuming the chosen song was nominated for an Oscar, the two Indian superstars, NT Rama Rao Jr. and Ram Charan said they are ready to act in tuxedos.

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