Best Original Screenplay Predictions – IndieWire

Voting for nominations January 11-16, 2024. takes place between, the official Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024. The final vote is February 22-27, 2024. ABC 8pm ET/ 5pm PT. We’ll be updating predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for our 2024 Oscars picks.

State of the species

With half of the best original screenplay winners of the past decade presented at a festival that takes place in the first six months of the year, moviegoers are probably more informed than they think when predicting which screenplay this year will win. .

Looking at what played at Sundance, which often sets the tone for what to expect from the year’s arthouse releases, Celine Song’s “Past Lives” was an instant hit, only bolstered by a successful platform release this summer. It serves as an example of how well the festival has done in spotlighting female writer-directors this year, with AV Rockwell winning the Grand Jury Prize for her feature film One Thousand and One and Maryam Keshavarz’s drama The Persian Version winning both. the Audience Award and the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award, and Chloe Dumont’s provocative thriller “Fair Play” is the first major entry from Sundance 2023. The films were acquired by A24, Focus Features, Sony Pictures Classics and Netflix. received screenplay Oscar nominations this year, with A24 in particular winning this category for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Speaking of the Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert-helmed Best Picture winner, last year’s SXSW premiere cemented the Texas film festival as an alternative destination for the early-year awards show. Ben Affleck’s “Air” hopes to continue that momentum as the Best Original Screenplay winner himself produces and backs Alex Convery’s script for Michael Jordan and his historic 2021 blacklisted Nike tie-up. it is about the origin of the agreement.

As for Oscar-favorite auteurs returning to the original screenplay race, the main contender most audiences have seen so far is Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City,” co-produced with frequent collaborator Roman Coppola and considered by many to be a return to form. the three-time nominee, he was last recognized in 2015 for the screenplay of “The Grand Budapest Hotel”. The film was presented at Cannes this year, and “Anatomy of the Fall” won the Palme d’Or. directed by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, and the new Todd Haynes film “May December,” written by Samy Burch and Alex Mechani.

Some of the big-name plays coming out later this year: “Rustin” by Oscar winners Dustin Lance Black and Alex Mechanik, “Saltburn” by recent Oscar-winning writer-director Emerald Fennell, “Drive-Away Dolls” by the four-time Directed by Oscar-winner Ethan Coen and his wife Tricia Cooke (ACE Award-nominated editor), and finally “Maestro” by Oscar-winner screenwriter Josh Singer and nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper.

However, more prospective nominees will soon emerge as fall festivals announce their film lineups.

The competitors are listed below in alphabetical order. No actor is considered a contender until I see the film.

Areas of interest:
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (“Asteroid City”)
Alex Convery (“Air”)
Chloe Dumont (“Fair Play”)
AV Rockwell (“One Thousand and One”)
Celine Song (“Lives Before”)

Competitors:
Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece (“Rustin”)
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (“May December”)
Ethan Coen and Tricia Cooke (“Drive-Away Dolls”)
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (“Maestro”)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
Emerald Fennell (“Saltburn”)
Arthur Harari and Justine Triet (“Anatomy of the Fall”)
David Hemingson (“The Holdovers”)
Justin Kuritzkes (“Challengers”)
David Scarpa (“Napoleon”)

Long shots:
Zach Baylin, Frank E. Flowers and Terence Winter (“Bob Marley: One Love”)
Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao and Adele Lim (“Joy Ride”)
Gareth Edwards and Chris Weitz (The Creator)
John Hoberg, Brenda Hsueh, Kat Likkel and Peter Sohn (“Elemental”)
Maryam Keshavarz (“The Persian Version”)
Angus MacLachlan (“A Little Prayer”)
Jon Raymond and Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)
Stefani Robinson (Chevalier)
Alice Rohrwacher (“La Chimera”)
Takuma Takasaki and Wim Wenders (“Perfect Days”)