2023 BAFTA films boost ‘Quiet on the Western Front’ Oscar chances

Consider the members of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts to be the tastemakers, as the nominations they set for the 2023 BAFTAs will not affect the Oscar nominations (nomination voting closed on January 17). Due to the fall in schedules this year, they may slightly affect the WGA Awards, which are still open for nominations until next Monday, but ultimately the BAFTAs will mostly serve as a stage for the expected frontrunners to give one more. rousing speech before the SAG Awards voting closed and the final Oscar voting opened.

The biggest news from this year’s BAFTAs is that Netflix’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” hit a new high in its awards campaign with a record 14 nominations — the most for a non-English language film since. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and the most films since 2011’s “The King’s Speech”. The Edward Berger film was a surprise hit for Netflix, which for a while looked like it had no chance of winning Best Picture this year. , despite entering the season with films from Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Guillermo del Toro, Noah Baumbach, Rian Johnson and more. Although it was featured at the critics’ awards and five Academy longlists confounded prognosticators, this feat at the BAFTAs is the first real indication that “All Quiet on the Western Front” could be a European Oscar favorite. voters (a rapidly growing demographic within the Academy).

Connected

Connected

In contrast, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking was banned from the BAFTAs altogether. Even though it’s somewhat of an expected result, as the film only made four longlists, it’s still surprising that Polley didn’t make it to Best Adapted Screenplay, a category he’s favored to win at the Oscars. “The Fabelmans” suffered a similarly tough break, missing out on several key longlists such as best director and only cracking the best original screenplay category. With the UK having the largest foreign Academy voting bloc and BAFTA members making up roughly half of the group, the two films seem to be struggling to connect with international audiences based on this year’s BAFTA nominations.

Courtesy of Allyson Riggs, A24

Even if that were the case, it would only provide an indication of who might end up winning the Oscars, not the nominations themselves. Because BAFTA uses juries to determine nominations for the acting and directing categories (plus casting), the awarding body often does not consider who is nominated for the Academy Awards. For example, none of the leading actress nominees were nominated in the Best Actress category last year. Even with an additional nomination period, BAFTA went two for five in predicting Best Actor nominees.

This time, however, despite maintaining the jury’s point of view, it seems that the acting candidates have recalibrated to be more predictive. The 2023 lead actress nominations are exactly the same as the SAG Awards nominations, with Cate Blanchett (“THE LIBRARY”), Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) just about every key Oscar front-runner ; Breakout Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) seems almost as sure a potential nominee, and Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) could be a spoiler for the third Best Actress nomination for Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”). It’s good to see Emma Thompson included, as ‘Good Luck to You, Leo Grande’ was an early gem in terms of award contenders, but her recognition seems very BAFTA-specific.

As well as his co-star Daryl McCormack’s nomination in the leading actor category, it’s another example where four of the nominees match what’s expected at the Oscars – Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) and Bill Nighy (“Living”) — while last-place finisher Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) looks like a more likely candidate for Best Actor than alternate SAG nominee Adam Sandler (“Hustle”). “).

Jonathan Hession / Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

The Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress category is where things get a little shaky. The former BAFTA category mostly overlaps with SAG, which includes front-runners Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and He became Eddie. Redmayne (‘The Good Sister’) and Albrecht Schuch (‘Quiet on the Western Front’) and 2020 BAFTA Rising Star winner Micheal Ward (‘Empire of Light’) are two choices that are once again typical of the awards organisation. The BAFTAs and SAGs both have a significant number of voters who are Academy members, while critics’ awards like the Golden Globes and Critics Choice don’t, so these new BAFTA nominations could mean Keoghan is firmly in the mix in the Best Supporting Actor competition. it wasn’t a given months earlier, and Redmayne is a bigger contender for an Oscar nomination than he’s been given credit for.

Finally, BAFTA’s supporting cast includes familiar faces such as Angela Bassett, who has already won Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, as well as Hong Chau (“The Whale”), Jamie Lee Curtis ( “Everything Everywhere All At Once”). ), and Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) (all SAG nominees). “Triangle of Sadness” scene-stealer Dolly De Leon’s nomination shows the actress can ride Palme d’Or winner Ruben Östlund’s wave of international acclaim and enter an Oscar nomination slot against some American film contenders. Meanwhile, Carey Mulligan’s nod to her in “She Said” keeps her in the awards conversation rather than elevating her to a likely spoiler candidate.

Five Best Picture nominees and six Best Director nominees cross-reference All Quiet on the Western Front, but what the 2023 BAFTA nominations reveal about potential Oscar nominations is Everything Everywhere All at once. “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “TÁR” seem stronger than ever. Officially, the former two candidates are considered the front-runners for the best film, and the latter a dark horse, and filmmakers Martin McDonagh, Daniels and Todd Field are expected to enter the best director and best original screenplay categories as well. The 95th Oscars will be announced on January 24. – award.

The EE British Academy Film Awards 2023 will be in London on Sunday 19 February on BBC1 and iPlayer at 7pm. Check out all the nominations here.

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