2023 Academy Award for Best Live-Action Predictions

We’ll be updating these predictions throughout awards season, so stay tuned to IndieWire for our 2023 Oscars picks. The final vote will take place between March 2 and 7, 2023. The 95th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 12th and will air live on ABC at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.

See IndieWire’s previous Oscar predictions for this category and more here.

State of the species

A look at recent Best Live Action Short winners shows that the Academy’s taste in films in this category is a bit grim. That’s not to say that films shouldn’t be challenged—it’s often the short that succeeds with Oscar voters—but it’s somewhat comforting that not every nominee in this year’s lineup needs a trigger warning.

Famed Italian filmmaker Alice Rohrwacher’s “Le Pupille” happens to be streaming on Disney+, which is enough of a hint that the movie about girls at a Catholic boarding school is something the whole family can watch. (But Rohrwacher doesn’t shy away from adding some dark humor, too.) Executive produced by two-time Best Director winner Alfonso Cuarón, “Le Pupille” would be a game-changer if it won for Best Live Action Short, but it looks like that’s welcome this year.

“Ivalu” actually fits right into the type of film expected to attract voters’ attention in this category, which makes more sense knowing it’s from director Anders Waller and producer Kim Magnusson (a perennial nominee), who have teamed up again to make it. after winning Best Live Action Short in 2014 for their film ‘Helium’. The story of a young Inuit girl searching for her missing sister deftly touches on a sensitive subject and dazzles viewers with its picturesque images of Greenland.

However, all signs point to Ireland being the country Oscar voters will fall in love with in 2023. “An Irish Goodbye” contains the same. teasing mood as Best Picture contender “The Banshees of Insiherin,” a mix of humor and heartbreak, but in the end, viewers are left wanting more (in a good way). Similarly, “The Red Suitcase” ends in a slot designed to leave viewers wondering what lies ahead for the main character. It’s an element that favors many shorts, but it can also lead voters to overlook the two films because they feel too much like a TV pilot, or a proof of concept for a longer film rather than a purposeful short.

Finally, “Night Ride” is perhaps the least successful at striking a balance between emotional fervor and lightheartedness, but that would be splitting hairs. Like “Le Pupille,” it’s set at Christmas time, and like “An Irish Goodbye,” it offers a meaningful portrayal of people with disabilities, but the way it captures a carjacking is delightfully unique.

The nominees are listed below in order of probability of winning.

Competitors:
“Le Pupille”
“Ivalo”
“Irish Farewell”
“The Red Suitcase”
“Night Journey”

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